Courage California logo

Poll Results From Southern California’s Key Congressional Districts

NEW POLLING SHOWS KEY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL RACES ARE ONLY A “TOSS-UP” WITHOUT INVESTMENT

Congressional Districts 27, 41, and 45 present opportunities to turn historically red districts blue 

Courage California partnered with Data for Social Good, Communities for a New California, Inland Empire United, and OC Action to conduct polls of over 3,400 registered voters in six key battleground congressional districts: 13, 21, 22, 27, 41, and 45.

Below are findings from the Congressional Districts located in Southern California, including CD27 (Los Angeles County), CD41 (Riverside County), and CD45 (Los Angeles and Orange Counties).  


The majority of voters in these districts are planning to vote in the general election but are not paying attention to the election.

Among voters in CD27, 30.6% are paying a great deal or a lot of attention to the election, 28.3% are a moderate amount, and 41.2% a little or not at all. At present, 89.5% of CD27 voters are planning on voting in the November 8 general election, 10.5% are unsure or probably won’t vote. A near-majority of CD27 voters plan on voting by mail (48.9%) over voting at the polls on Election Day (29.7%) or voting early in person (11.8%), and 9.7% have not decided how they will vote. 

Among voters in CD41, only 26.2% are paying a great deal or a lot of attention to the election, 26.6% are a moderate amount, and 47.2% a little or not at all. At present, 95.4% of CD41 voters are planning on voting in the November 8 general election, 4.6% are unsure or probably won’t vote. A majority of CD41 voters plan on voting by mail (56.8%) over voting at the polls on Election Day (23.0%) or voting early in person (7.8%), and 12.4% have not decided how they will vote. 

Among voters in CD45, 23.6% are paying a great deal or a lot of attention to the election, 28.2% are a moderate amount, and 48.3% a little or not at all. At present, 92.4% of CD45 voters are planning on voting in the November 8 general election, 5.7% are unsure or probably won’t vote. A majority of CD45 voters plan on voting by mail (59.9%) over voting at the polls on Election Day (20.6%) or voting early in person (7.9%), and 11.6% have not decided how they will vote. 

Voters in these districts are nearly split between congressional candidates and undecided. 

CD27 voters support Mike Garcia (R) (50.1%) in the U.S. House of Representatives race, 30.0% support Christy Smith (D), and 19.9% are undecided. White voters are largely supportive of Garcia (60.8%, +19.1% in comparison to latino voters), and Smith’s support is split between white (30.4%) and latino (30.6%) voters. Men are largely supportive of Garcia (54.3%, +8.4% in comparison), and Smith’s support is split between women (30.7%) and men (29.2%) voters. Undecided voters in CD27 are likely to vote for a candidate based on the issues they represent (65.1%). 

Voters in CD41 support Ken Calvert (R) (44.9%), with 32.4% in support of Will Rollins (D), for U.S. House of Representatives, 22.8% are undecided. Latino voters in CD41 are more undecided (41.0%, +28.5% in comparison to white voters). White voters largely support Calvert (49.6%, +18.9% in comparison to latino voters) and are least likely to be undecided (12.5%). Women voters in CD41 are more undecided than men (29.8%, +13.0% in comparison). Undecided voters in CD41 are likely to vote for a candidate based on the issues they represent (65.1%). 

CD45 voters support Jay Chen (D) (35.1%) in the U.S. House of Representatives race, 33.2% support Michelle Steel (R), and 31.7% are undecided. Latino voters in CD45 are largely undecided (42.0%, +18.0% in comparison to white voters). White voters are largely supportive of Steel (41.8%, +11.6% in comparison to latino voters), while support for Chen is equally split. Men in CD45 are largely supportive of Steel (38.1%, +9.7% in comparison), and Chen’s support is split between men (34.0%) and women (36.3%) voters. Undecided voters in CD45 are likely to vote for a candidate based on the issues they represent (61.3%). 

Jobs and the economy and public safety are amongst the top three issue for voters in these districts when considering which candidate to support in congressional races. 

The top issues that CD27 voters care about are jobs and the economy (32.6%), public safety (19.9%), and abortion and reproductive rights (14.0%). Of those who chose jobs and the economy, 77.5% did because of inflation. Of those who chose public safety, 57.7% did so because of a belief that crime has increased. Of those who chose abortion and reproductive rights, 38.1% did so because they believe people have the right what to do with their own bodies. 

The top issues that CD41 voters care about are jobs and the economy (32.0%), public safety (21.6%), and abortion and reproductive rights (16.1%). Of those who chose jobs and the economy, 74.4% did because of inflation. Of the voters who chose public safety, 55.7% did so because of a belief that crime has increased. Of those who chose abortion and reproductive rights, 45.3% did because they believe healthcare is a human right. 

The top issues that CD45 voters care about are jobs and the economy (27.6%), public safety (19.9%), and healthcare (13.0%). Of those who chose jobs and the economy, 77.8% did because of inflation. Of the voters who chose public safety, 55.1% did so because of a belief that crime has increased. Of those who chose healthcare, 57.1% did because they believe healthcare is a human right. 

The majority of voters in these districts will vote Yes on Prop 1 – but undecided voters in these districts will likely decide the fate of Prop 30. 

CD27 voters support Yes on Prop 1 (55.2%), with some opposition (32.8%) to the statewide ballot measure, and only 11.3% are undecided. However, voters in CD27 oppose Prop 30 (48.4% do not support, 37.1% support), with only 14.5% uncertain on how they will vote on the proposition. 

CD41 voters support Yes on Prop 1 (57.9%), with some opposition (31.5%) to the statewide ballot measure, and only 10.6% are undecided. However, voters in CD41 lean no on Prop 30 (44.5% do not support, 41.4% support), with only 14.1% uncertain on how they will vote on the proposition. 

CD45 voters support Yes on Prop 1 (64.2%), with some opposition (27.4%) to the statewide ballot measure, and only 8.4% are undecided. Voters in CD45 support Prop 30 (47.8% support, 38.8% do not support), with only 13.4% uncertain on how they will vote on the proposition. 

Community organizations and leaders are seen as the voices voters in these districts will listen to most when thinking about who to vote for. 

CD27 voters see community organizations (27.9%) as the most influential when thinking about who to vote for, followed closely by community leaders (26.6%). There was less trust in business people (23.4%), elected officials (18.4%), and celebrities and influencers (3.7%). 

CD41 voters see community leaders (27.8%) and business people (27.3%) as the voices they are most likely to listen to when thinking about who to vote for, followed by community organizations (25.2%). There was less trust in elected officials (16.2%), and celebrities and influencers (3.5%). 

CD45 voters see community organizations (34.6%) as the voices they are most likely to listen to when thinking about who to vote for, followed by community leaders (22.6%). There was less trust in elected officials (19.2%), business people (18.1%), and celebrities and influencers (5.5%). 

The majority of voters in these districts trust their own online research for information. 

Voters in CD27 rank online research as the most trustworthy source for information (58.9%).  Print/radio/TV/podcast (21.5%), social media (10.2%), and parents and family (9.4%) were considered much less trustworthy.  

Voters in CD41 rank online research as the most trustworthy source for information (55.6%).  Print/radio/TV/podcast (26.2%), social media (11.5%), and parents and family (6.7%) were considered much less trustworthy. 

Voters in CD45 rank online research as the most trustworthy source for information (56.3%). Print/radio/TV/podcast (27.2%), social media (9.1%), and parents and family (7.4%) were considered much less trustworthy. 

The voters in these districts lean conservative, but a significant number identify themselves as No Party Preference or Independent.  

Voters in CD27 lean conservative (34.4% identify as very or somewhat conservative, 29.0% as moderate, 20.5% as very or somewhat liberal), 34.1% identify as No Party Preference or Independent, 31.5% as registered Republicans, and 31.2% as registered Democrats. Of the CD27 voters who identify as NPP or Independent, 30.1% believe that corporations and the wealthy have too much influence in the party, 28.0% believe the parties only want to get their candidate elected, and 23.3% think the parties are too extreme. NPP or Independent voters would consider joining a party again when parties work together (27.9%), but 20.7% would never consider joining a party.  

Voters in CD41 lean conservative (38.1% identify as very or somewhat conservative, 24.2% as moderate, 27.2% as very or somewhat liberal), 35.6% identify themselves as registered Republicans, 31.5% as No Party Preference or Independent, and 30.3% as registered Democrats. Of the CD41 voters who identify as NPP or Independent, 36.6% believe that corporations and the wealthy have too much influence in the party, 27.0% think the parties are too extreme, and 24.9% believe the parties only want to get their candidate elected. NPP or Independent voters would consider joining a party again when the parties work together again (29.5%) and when there are better candidates from the parties (17.3%), but 20.7% would never consider joining a party. 

While voters in CD45 lean slightly conservative (31.9% identify as very or somewhat conservative, 31.3% as moderate, 26.2% as very or somewhat liberal), 37.8% identify themselves as registered Democrats, 30.5% as No Party Preference or Independent, and 28.2% as registered Republicans. Of the CD45 voters who identify as NPP or Independent, 33.3% believe that corporations and the wealthy have too much influence in the party, 27.0% believe the parties are too extreme, and 22.4% believe the parties only want to get their candidate elected. NPP or Independent voters would consider joining a party again when parties work together (19.8%), when corporations and the wealthy have equal weight with “regular” people (19.2%), and when there is more civil discourse between the parties, but 19.8% would never consider joining a party. 


About this poll

Data for Social Good conducted the poll for Courage California, Communities for a New California, IE United, and OC Action from September 1-22, 2022. The poll was administered online in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean, Tagalog, and Vietnamese. We polled 3,432 registered voters, intentionally oversampling from demographic communities that have seen higher rates of growth in the last decade, including voters of color.